"That's why they call it gambling"

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/21/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jack Klugman, who portrayed Oscar Madison in the Odd Couple, uttered the above line when speaking to Tony Randall (Felix Unger) in an episode that dealt with, of all things, gambling. The more famous quote, however, was the nine words spoken right before that phrase, and they were, "There is no such thing as a sure thing."

That pretty much sums up the events that took place this past Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs. War Pass, the 1-20 favorite, brought to the Tampa Bay Derby a perfect five-for-five record, but not only did the undefeated streak go by the boards, the two-year-old Eclipse Award winner finished dead last.

The trouble began at the start, when Make Me Zach veered to his inside and pinched War Pass back just as the race began. It also didn't help having Gentleman James come out and sandwich the already bothered champion. Those two then placed War Pass in tight corners as the field entered the clubhouse turn, marking the first time in his young career that he did not have the lead at the quarter-pole.

The poor start threw the race into disarray, as no one knew how War Pass would handle the adversity. However, the whole world found out soon enough. Not being on the lead forced him to rate for the first time in his career, and the results were extremely unflattering.

Sensing War Pass was losing ground on the leaders around the far turn, his jockey, Cornelio Velasquez began showing him the whip, and the horse did not respond. It was pretty clear at that point that history would not be on his side.

During the post-race celebrations/heartbreaks, it was revealed that War Pass had been laid up with a fever during the few days leading up to Saturday, but still the decision to race was never in question. It was also reported earlier this week that the horse had sustained a few cuts on his front left leg during the early stages of the race. Maybe that's why the two-year-old champ looked liked he was racing on three legs through the stretch.

After the race, Velasquez gave his reasoning for the pitiful performance by saying War Pass did not take to the track. Now it's true, Tampa Bay's dirt surface is one of the sandiest in the country, but that didn't stop Street Sense from setting a stakes record in last year's Tampa Bay Derby en route to his Kentucky Derby triumph. The bottom line is: A-list horses win on any track regardless of circumstances. War Pass is obviously not on that list.

As of this writing, the Wood Memorial is still expected to be his final prep before Kentucky. Will he be able to bounce back from this tremendously sub par effort? That's the million-dollar question. My gut instinct says that if he can't handle minor adversity against six other competitors, it will be virtually impossible for him to do so in a 20-horse field on the world's biggest stage, running a distance of ground he is not bred to handle.

Despite the negative press concerning War Pass, let's not take anything away from the top two finishers. Big Truck won his first graded stakes race coming from off the pace, while Atoned will certainly improve off his second-place effort. This was the latter's first start since his near victory over Court Vision in last year's Remsen, and despite an early move to the lead this past Saturday, he hung on very gamely through the stretch. I wouldn't be surprised to see a victory in his running lines next time out, or even in Kentucky.

THE REBEL AND THE SAN FELIPE

The other two preps run last weekend produced a pair of California-bred winners. Sierra Sunset, off a second-place finish to Denis of Cork in the Southwest, dominated the field of nine to win the Rebel in 1:43 4/5. However, the Jeff Bonde-trained colt "walked" home in 32 1/5 for his final 2 1/2- furlongs, and his breeding and racing style suggests the 1- Derby distance will be too much for him.

The other California native to post a decisive victory last Saturday did so in impressive fashion. Georgie Boy could very well be the best of the West Coast contingent after his eye-catching performance in the San Felipe.

The pace was slow as molasses on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita, as Bob Black Jack and Gayego did not want to use their speed in the early stages, as evidenced by a half-mile in 48 3/5 and three-quarters in a sluggish 1:13. Georgie Boy, meanwhile, sat the pocket, a length off the dueling leaders, but soon burst through a hole as the field was set down for the drive.

It took almost the length of the stretch for him to get past the leaders because he was running on his wrong lead, but when the son of Tribal Rule righted his gait, it was all over. He ran his final 1/16 of a mile in less than six seconds, and galloped out like he wanted to run all day long.

On the negative side, he still has yet to race on a true dirt surface, which will continue if he stays in California for the Santa Anita Derby. Nevertheless, there is a possibility he may surface in the Arkansas Derby the following week.

THIS WEEK'S PREP

The only race of significance this Saturday comes from Turfway Park in Kentucky. The Lane's End Stakes, only the third prep so far to be run at nine furlongs, will not have the star power of last year's version when Hard Spun claimed victory, but there is one horse that could surprise come Derby time.

Halo Najib returns to his favorite surface after a deceptively fine run in the Fountain of Youth, and the son of Halo's Image is undefeated on synthetic tracks. He is this columnist's choice to hit the wire first, especially after drilling five furlongs in 58 4/5 over the course last Sunday.

Among his competitors, Turf War, trained by Mark Casse, looks to improve off a ninth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes back in mid-February. Previously, the May foal wound up in a dead heat for first in the Delta Downs Jackpot with Z Humor. Chitoz opened up his 2008 campaign finishing out of the money on the turf, but previously ran second in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile last year.

Others aiming for the 37th running of this graded event are Macho Again, Racecar Rhapsody, Adriano, Medjool and Cannonball.

THE TOP 10 LIST WITH FINAL POOL 2 ODDS

War Pass can't be totally neglected as we move forward, but he is certainly not a horse to wager with any confidence from here on in. Pyro takes over the top spot followed by Court Vision and a host of other challengers.

1) Pyro, 4-1; 2) Court Vision, 16-1; 3) Colonel John, 17-1; 4) Tomcito, 6-1 - field; 5) Denis of Cork, 12-1; 6) Visionaire, 19-1; 7) War Pass, 9-2; 8) Georgie Boy, 20-1; 9) Atoned, 6-1 - field; 10-T) Fierce Wind and Big Brown, field horses at 6-1.