Lilly goes for Cubs against Reds

Baseball Betting Lines

08/20/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lefty Ted Lilly can reverse the result of his lone loss in 10 starts when the Chicago Cubs host the Cincinnati Reds in the middle test of a three-game series tonight at Wrigley Field.

A 32-year-old Californian, Lilly is 5-1 with four no-decisions while going at least six innings in nine of the 10 outings.

He was touched for six hits and four runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Reds on July 10, however, losing a 12-7 decision that dropped his career mark against Cincinnati to 1-3 in seven starts.

Lilly, who's won 15 games in each of the last two seasons, got within three of that mark in his last outing, an 11-7 downing of Atlanta on Thursday.

In the win, he scattered eight hits and allowed four runs in six innings.

For the Reds, right-hander Bronson Arroyo can snap a two-start skid that followed a six-wins-in-seven-starts streak.

The Key West, Florida native, a 14-game winner in 2006 before tumbling to nine wins last year, improved to 10-8 with a 6-3 defeat of the Milwaukee Brewers on Aug. 4.

He's dropped two straight since, however, combining to allow 14 hits and seven runs in 12 1/3 innings.

Arroyo defeated the Cubs in the midst of his hot streak, winning a 12-7 decision on July 10 after allowing seven hits and five runs in five innings.

Lifetime against Chicago, he is 5-6 with a 3.45 earned run average in 16 games - 14 starts.

On Tuesday, Rich Harden dominated for seven innings, and the Cubs tagged the Cincinnati bullpen for four runs in the eighth as Chicago downed the Reds, 5-0.

Harden (3-1) surrendered just two hits -- both singles -- and struck out 10 with no walks, combining with Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood on the three-hit shutout.

Derrek Lee went 2-for-4 and knocked in a run, and Kosuke Fukudome hit a two- run single for the Cubs, who have won 17 of 21 to move a season-high 29 games over .500, at an NL-best 77-48.

Johnny Cueto (8-12) took the tough loss despite holding the Cubs to one run on four hits in seven frames, with six strikeouts and two walks.

Reliever Mike Lincoln surrendered four runs on three hits in the eighth, and didn't record an out for the Reds, who have dropped four of six.

Chicago has won six of its 10 meetings with the Reds this season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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MySportsbook.com and Kentucky Derby Offer Bonuses
The 2008 Kentucky Derby has announced a $1-million bonus for this weekend’s 134th ‘Run for the Roses’ and MySportsbook.com is doing the same.

Well, not quite $1 million, but MySportsbook.com is offering a 75% rebate for Kentucky Derby lines. Check out the exclusive horse racing bonus for all the details.

According to MySportsbook.com, the favorites for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky are: Curlin (+250); Street Sense (+500); Scat Daddy (+700); Circular Quay (+750); and Nobiz Like Shobiz (+800).

Derby organizers announced this week that there will be a $1-million bonus at the 2007 Kentucky Derby odds if the first-place horse wins by more than 6 1/2 lengths – the margin of Barbaro's victory last year. The bonus would be divided Saturday among the winning trainer, jockey, owner and a charity, with each receiving 25 percent. The designated charity is the Barbaro Memorial Fund.

''It's certainly creative, it's certainly fun and it has something for the horsemen, which we always want to embrace,'' Churchill Downs president and chief executive Robert Evans said at a news conference. ''What's really cool is it will force us to remember Barbaro.''
    
Meanwhile, the Derby favorite – Curlin – is going against the odds this year. It's been 125 years since Apollo won after skipping his 2-year-old season, and not since Regret in 1915 has such a lightly seasoned horse worn the blanket of red roses.

Arkansas Derby winner Curlin – unbeaten in three career races – tries to overcome both those obstacles in Saturday's 133rd Derby.

''We're not running against history,'' trainer Steve Asmussen said Monday. ''We're running against who they load up.''

Six other horses have run in the Derby without benefit of 2-year-old races and with three or fewer starts. The best any of them managed was a sixth-place finish by Showing Up last year.
   
Asmussen dismissed suggestions that Curlin's lack of racing experience could keep him from the winner's circle.

”He exudes confidence and he's got a great presence about him,'' the trainer said. ''I feel great about the position we're in. He's not worried about anything, why should you be?''
   
The Kentucky Derby is at 4:04 p.m., ET Saturday.

For complete odds on the Kentucky Derby, visit MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.