LSU visits Vanderbilt in SEC lidlifter

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Vanderbilt Commodores are coming off a highly-disappointing week-one loss, and they will open SEC play on Saturday against the 19th-ranked LSU Tigers, who are fresh off a drama-filled victory.

LSU took on fellow ranked foe North Carolina in Atlanta to open the season, and while the Tar Heels were missing several key players who are under investigation by the NCAA, the game lived up to its billing as a gem. The Tigers opened up a 20-point lead in that clash but held on for a 30-24 victory, as a UNC pass was broken up in the end zone as time expired.

"We had the opportunity to win a game in a very convincing style and our football team wasn't good enough to do that," said LSU coach Les Miles after the tilt.

Miles carried a 51-15 record through five seasons at LSU into this campaign, and while his team did post nine victories last season, losses to the top teams on the schedule left many wondering if the program had fallen back to the pack, and is no longer worthy of being considered elite.

As for Vanderbilt, it certainly fought hard in front of the home crowd last weekend, but the result of the opener against Northwestern was a heart- breaking 23-21 setback. That loss spoiled the debut of new head coach Robbie Caldwell, who has taken over the reigns of the program from the retired Bobby Johnson. Caldwell inherits the leadership of a program that won just two games last season, but he doesn't seem discouraged by the opening loss.

"I'm very proud of the effort overall," said coach Caldwell after the tilt. "We could have gotten down but we played a very good football game and I'm very excited that we came back and had a chance to win it."

LSU owns a 21-7-1 series advantage over Vanderbilt, including victories in six straight meetings between the programs.

In the first half against UNC, the LSU offense was impressive, and Jordan Jefferson seemed to have complete command under center. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they failed to score a single point over the final 30 minutes. Jefferson finished 15-of-21 for 151 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception. Steven Ridley posted 81 rushing yards, while Rueben Randle paced the receivers with 71 yards on four catches, including one touchdown.

LSU only had possession of the ball for 25:25 and recorded 313 total yards, numbers that fall short of expectations considering the amount of talent missing from the UNC defense in that game. The Tigers lost four fumbles in the tilt, and that was simply unacceptable.

Defensively, LSU surrendered 436 total yards to North Carolina, almost all of which came through the air. The Tigers yielded a mere 24 rushing yards on 33 attempts, and it certainly helped matters that their four sacks totaled 46 yards in losses. There is significant room for improvement in the secondary, as UNC completed 28-of-46 tosses for 412 yards without an interception.

The star of the game for LSU was returner Patrick Peterson, who ripped off a school-record 257 return yards, including an 87-yard touchdown. Patterson, a cornerback, earned high praise from Miles.

"I don't know the validity of making a guy a Heisman trophy candidate," said the coach. "I would say that he had the kind of night tonight on a national level that would be put in him line for any national award including the very highest."

Vanderbilt posted 432 total yards against Northwestern last week and established solid offensive balance. The team gained 192 rushing yards at a clip of 5.1 yards per attempt and had two scores on the ground. The passing game netted 240 yards on 12.6 yards per completion with a touchdown and an interception.

Larry Smith was the man under center, and he completed 19-of-33 passes while also rushing for 48 yards. Zac Stacy ran for 69 yards and a score, while fellow tailback Warren Norman posted 46 yards and a touchdown.

"It's always disappointing especially that first loss, but like I keep saying we can't dwell on this loss. We fought hard as a team and we just need to bounce back and get ready as a team for our next big opponent, LSU."

Defensively, the Commodores allowed three touchdowns to Northwestern, one more than they could afford to surrender. The Wildcats were able to post 143 rushing yards, but it took 46 attempts to reach that mark, so Vandy can take pride in the fact that it yielded just 3.1 yards per rushing attempt. The secondary struggled, as Northwestern was able to complete 19-of-21 passes for 222 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

Sean Richardson came up with 2.5 TFLs to lead the Commodores, and he posted eight tackles in all. Chris Marve and Jay Fullam tied for the team lead with 12 stops apiece.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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