11/20/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Every sport has its rules. How often people break them depends on the sport. How frequently people call themselves for breaking said rules is a different story.
Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire all had a chance to admit to authorities that they used some sort of performance-enhancing drug, but none did so.
Offensive linemen in the NFL could be called for holding on every play. When was the last time a player told a referee he held someone? Never, and don't hold your breath waiting for it.
In the NHL and NBA, players that get called for penalties or fouls sometimes look like they got caught with their hand in the cookie jar. Who me? I didn't do anything!
None of those leagues can be confused with the PGA Tour, or golf in general, where players police themselves and penalize themselves even when millions of dollars are on the line.
Roberto de Vicenzo is famous for signing an incorrect scorecard at the Masters costing himself a chance at the title. Afterwards, he said, "What a stupid I am!"
Recently, at the second stage of the PGA Tour's Qualifying Tournament, J.P. Hayes turned himself in for playing the wrong ball.
Sure, that doesn't seem like much, but you must start and finish rounds using the same type of golf ball. Well, Hayes was playing a Titleist and his caddie did not realize there were two different types of Titleist in Hayes' bag.
Hayes asked for a new ball on the tee at a par three, and played away. After his tee shot and following chip, Hayes marked his ball and picked up it.
Immediately, he realized the difference in the ball and called a penalty on himself. After consulting an official, he was assessed a two-stroke penalty.
End of story, right? Not so fast my friend!
After playing another round and thinking about it some more, Hayes realized the ball was a prototype and may be non-conforming or not on the list of approved golf balls as posted by the United States Golf Association.
The 43-year-old called an official after realizing this and was told that officials would touch base with Titleist the following day.
At that point, he figured he would be disqualified. And he was right.
Disqualified from the second stage at Q-School, Hayes will have to rely on his Past Champion/Veteran Member status and hope to get into a few more events via sponsor exemptions.
You may think, who cares? The PGA Tour will have purses totaling nearly $223 million in 2009. Toss an extra $28 million or so on there for the majors, and PGA Tour players will be competing for over $250 million next year.
One might think that all PGA Tour players are millionaires since 104 players did earn over $1 million in 2008. But that isn't the case.
Hayes has made over $7 million during his 14-year career. Given today's economic climate, the more than $500,000 a year he averages is great, but it doesn't guarantee him a job anymore.
He would have needed to earn just under $853,000 in '08 to keep his card, but 'only' made $312,152. So calling this penalty on himself could cost him hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars.
His response as told to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "It's not the end of the world. It will be fine. It is fine."
Golf still is, and continues to be a gentleman's game.
GREGORY'S INSPIRATIONAL STORY WRAPS UP
Throughout the 2008 season, fans may have seen a man walking the course with the aid of a cane. That man, D.J. Gregory, was born with cerebral palsy.
Through 45 weeks, Gregory traveled to 44 events and walked all 72 holes at every event. He chose a different golfer every week and followed that player all week.
Gregory blogged about his experience on PGATour.com, revealing that he walked 988 miles over 3,256 holes. Oh, and he fell 29 times. Remember, he has cerebral palsy.
As I said, you can read his blog on the PGA Tour's website. Or, if you want to watch highlights of his story, ESPN's E:60 did a feature piece on him this week. The video can be found on both ESPN and the PGA Tour's websites.
At the end of his journey, which was completed at the Children's Miracle Network Classic, several players waited for Gregory behind the 18th green to congratulate him on his travels and work.
Kenny Perry told ESPN producers this, "How can you see a kid struggle around the golf course, and then you're out there complaining about playing golf? It just really changed my perspective about my life and about my golf game and about what I was doing."
MINI-TIDBITS
- The proof is in the numbers. The old adage of "drive for show and putt for dough" is real, at least according to numbers released by the PGA Tour earlier this week. In 2008, Jason Gore became the sixth player in the last seven years to lead the tour in total driving (distance and accuracy combined) and still finish outside the top 125 on the money list.
- Furthering that note, if you combine the PGA, Champions and Nationwide Tours, 16 players who led the field in putting went on to win, while only two players to lead in driving distance were winners.
- Winning on the Nationwide Tour does not guarantee you a PGA Tour card for the following season. That was evident this year, as eight players who didn't win finished inside the top 25 to earn their PGA Tour cards, while eight players who did win failed to earn their PGA Tour cards for next year.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Chiefs' Treen Green out for Sunday's game
How long Trent Green will remain sidelined is unknown. Coach Herm Edwards said Monday he will miss a second straight start Sunday when the Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers.
A two-time Pro Bowler, Green was going into a feet-first hook slide when he was knocked unconscious by a thunderous, head-snapping hit from Cincinnati's Robert Geathers.
Oddsmakers at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com currently have the Chiefs listed as 7-point favorites versus the 49ers.
The 49ers got beat by Philadelphia 38-24 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Alex Smith completed 27-of-46 passes for 293 yards with a touchdown. Michael Robinson rushed for 29 yards and a pair of touchdowns on five carries.
The Chiefs lost 9-6 to Denver last week as an 11-point underdog. The combined score was well UNDER the posted over/under total (38).
Larry Johnson rushed for 126 yards on 27 carries. Damon Huard completed 17-of-23 passes for 133 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.
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