05/09/2008 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ted Lilly tossed seven brilliant innings, and Derrek Lee homered as Chicago downed Arizona, 3-1, in the opener of a three- game set.
Lilly (3-4) allowed just one run on three hits, while walking two and fanning 10 for the Cubs, who have won two of their past three games. Carlos Marmol threw a scoreless eighth and Kerry Wood earned his sixth save of the year by hurling a perfect ninth to finish things.
Lilly and Alfonso Soriano drove in a run apiece for Chicago.
Chris Young homered to account for the Diamondbacks only offense. Stephen Drew, Chris Snyder and Augie Ojeda each recorded a hit for Arizona, which has lost two of three but still sports the best record in the big leagues, 23-13.
Dan Haren (4-2) was the hard-luck loser for the D-Backs, surrendering just two runs on five hits in seven innings.
Trailing 1-0, the Cubs finally got to Haren with a two-out rally in the fifth. Mark DeRosa started things with a double to left and Haren intentionally walked Reed Johnson in order to pitch to Lilly, who promptly singled up the middle to even things. Soriano followed with an RBI double down the left field line to make it a 2-1 game.
Arizona looked like it might get something started against Marmol in the eighth when Ojeda, a pinch hitter, led off the inning by singling to right.
But, with the Diamondbacks playing hit-and-run, Marmol punched out Eric Byrnes and Ojeda, despite having the bag stolen, was ruled out at second when Byrnes was also called for batter's interference after getting in the way of catcher Geovany Soto's throw to second.
Chicago added a much-needed insurance run in the home-half of the eighth when Lee drove a Juan Cruz hanging slider over the wall in left-center for his ninth home run of the year.
The Diamondbacks jumped on top in the first when Young belted a two-out, solo homer to left, his ninth of the year.
Game Notes
Before the game, the Cubs activated left-handed pitcher Scott Eyre from the 15-day disabled list and optioned left-handed pitcher Sean Marshall to Triple- A Iowa...This was the first meeting between the teams since last year's National League Division Series. The 2007 NL West champion Diamondbacks easily handled the Central-winning Cubs during that postseason skirmish, as Arizona swept the best-of-five series and clinched a berth into the NLCS with a 5-1 victory at Wrigley Field in Game 3...The Diamondbacks also won four of their six regular-season matchups with Chicago and are 16-6 against the Cubs (including last year's postseason) since the start of the 2005 campaign.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.