03/21/2008 - Munich, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayern Munich has been busy ever since the club returned from the winter break in February.
They have been tested early in the second half of the season, taking on title challengers Werder Bremen, Hamburg and Schalke in the span of one month.
Their toughest stretch of games will come to an end on Saturday when the club welcomes third-place Bayer Leverkusen to the Allianz Arena on Saturday.
Bayern has faired well against the rest of the league's elite, earning draws with Bremen and Hamburg and recording a 1-0 win over Schalke.
Those results have helped the team build a five-point lead in the Bundesliga standings, and they will have a chance to put more distance between themselves and Leverkusen, who trail Bayern by six points, on Saturday.
Bayern dropped a 2-0 contest to struggling Energie last Saturday, but they rebounded on Wednesday by knocking off a hot Wolfsburg team in the German Cup.
Bayern manager Ottmar Hitzfeld will have the services of defender Martin Demichelis, who played well against Wolfsburg after serving a one-game suspension imposed by the manager prior to the Energie game after Demichelis refused to play in the midfield.
Leverkusen has not won at Bayern in 19 years and has taken only one point from its last 13 trips to the Allianz Arena.
With such a tight battle shaping up at the top, any points Leverkusen can take back home will be crucial towards the club's Champions League aspirations.
Second-place Hamburg faces a tough road test at Wolfsburg on Saturday, while defending-champions Stuttgart have surged into sixth place and will host Rostock.
Other matches on Saturday include Bochum visiting Nurnberg, Borussia Dortmund entertaining Karlsruhe and Hannover invading last-place Duisburg.
Sunday's games feature top-five clubs Schalke and Werder Bremen hitting the road. Bremen slipped to fourth place after losing 1-0 to Wolfsburg last weekend and they will try to rebound with a home win against Arminia Bielefeld, while fifth-place Schalke, just two points behind Bremen, will visit Hertha Berlin.
<< Rangers getting healthy ahead of Hibernian clash
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rangers has been the hottest team in
the Scottish Premier League for months, and they got some good news on Friday
when it was determined that captain Barry Ferguson, defender Davie Weir and
striker
<< Inter hopes to regain top form against Juve
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan was able to extend its lead in
the Serie A table on Wednesday despite being held to a 1-1 draw by Genoa.
The Nerazzuri will carry a seven-point lead into Saturday's showdown with
third-pla
<< "That's why they call it gambling"
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jack Klugman, who portrayed Oscar
Madison in the Odd Couple, uttered the above line when speaking to Tony
Randall (Felix Unger) in an episode that dealt with, of all things, gambling.
The more famous quote,
<< Ajax desperate for points as season nears an end
Enschede, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ajax missed a big opportunity to
close to within one point of league-leaders PSV Eindhoven on Wednesday, but
the Amsterdam club must now turn its attention to finishing off the final five
games o
Lyon still have a chance to make history >>
Lyon, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lyon had hoped to make an impact in Europe
this season, something that they have failed to do despite dominating Ligue 1.
However, those plans changed in the Round of 16 in the Champions League when
the
Oregon takes on Mississippi State in South Regional action >>
Little Rock, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Winners of the very first NCAA Tournament
back in 1939, the Oregon Ducks shoot for just their second trophy as they
contend against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the 70th annual event at
Alltel Arena in Li
Gaels battle 'Canes in first round of NCAA Tournament >>
Little Rock, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first round of the 70th annual NCAA
Tournament continues this afternoon in Little Rock, as the Miami-Florida
Hurricanes tangle with the Gaels of Saint Mary's-CA at Alltel Arena.
Miami opened the 2007-08
Govs and 'Horns mix it up in NCAA Tournament first-round action >>
Little Rock, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Making their 10th straight NCAA Tournament
appearance, the Texas Longhorns go after the Austin Peay Governors in first-
round action in the South Region at Alltel Arena in Little Rock this
afternoon.
An im
MySportsbook.com and Kentucky Derby Offer Bonuses
The 2008 Kentucky Derby has announced a $1-million bonus for this weekend’s 134th ‘Run for the Roses’ and MySportsbook.com is doing the same.
Well, not quite $1 million, but MySportsbook.com is offering a 75% rebate for Kentucky Derby lines. Check out the exclusive horse racing bonus for all the details.
According to MySportsbook.com, the favorites for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky are: Curlin (+250); Street Sense (+500); Scat Daddy (+700); Circular Quay (+750); and Nobiz Like Shobiz (+800).
Derby organizers announced this week that there will be a $1-million bonus at the 2007 Kentucky Derby odds if the first-place horse wins by more than 6 1/2 lengths – the margin of Barbaro's victory last year. The bonus would be divided Saturday among the winning trainer, jockey, owner and a charity, with each receiving 25 percent. The designated charity is the Barbaro Memorial Fund.
''It's certainly creative, it's certainly fun and it has something for the horsemen, which we always want to embrace,'' Churchill Downs president and chief executive Robert Evans said at a news conference. ''What's really cool is it will force us to remember Barbaro.''
Meanwhile, the Derby favorite – Curlin – is going against the odds this year. It's been 125 years since Apollo won after skipping his 2-year-old season, and not since Regret in 1915 has such a lightly seasoned horse worn the blanket of red roses.
Arkansas Derby winner Curlin – unbeaten in three career races – tries to overcome both those obstacles in Saturday's 133rd Derby.
''We're not running against history,'' trainer Steve Asmussen said Monday. ''We're running against who they load up.''
Six other horses have run in the Derby without benefit of 2-year-old races and with three or fewer starts. The best any of them managed was a sixth-place finish by Showing Up last year.
Asmussen dismissed suggestions that Curlin's lack of racing experience could keep him from the winner's circle.
”He exudes confidence and he's got a great presence about him,'' the trainer said. ''I feel great about the position we're in. He's not worried about anything, why should you be?''
The Kentucky Derby is at 4:04 p.m., ET Saturday.
For complete odds on the Kentucky Derby, visit MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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